But, as Chris points out at Outside Report, we know very little about the people who have turned against Bush.  I left a comment on his post in which I ventured a hypothesis, but I agree that the DNC should be all over finding out who they are.  They should also look WAY BEYOND these voters and think for the long term if they ever wish to build an effective governing (something we actually are qualified to do) majority.

But on the question of who these 4-10% of voters now turning away from Bush are, it seems to me likely that these folks could also be "finger in the wind" voters who are really susceptible to media perceptions. If you take a look at this graph, I think it shows that Bush's "natural", ie take out 9-11, numbers hover between 45 and 55%. When he is exposed as having no clothes, this 4-10% quickly abandon him. When he seems like a nice guy, they like him.

And this is where the so called "right wing noise machine" comes into play--during an election year, it is mobilized for the precise purpose of winning that media battle. With a stronger, more articulate candidate for the Republicans--it would be even harder to counter.  (Remember: Bush nearly blinked and smirked away the election in those debates--want some wood?)

I am excited to see these poll numbers for Bush, but just below the surface we have a Democratic Party that is arguing about Howard Dean rather than drafting a Newer Deal to run on in 2006. That is a more significant fact than these poll numbers.

So my hypothesis (note: I refuse to call it a "theory" as is the parlance of our times) is that these are fickle voters and we should find out what changes their mind. But we should also work tirelessly to turn less fickle voters into Democrats over the long term so that we don't rely on "finger in the wind" people to win elections.

When we rely on those folks, a Bin Laden tape, a Ward Churchill, a John O'Neill--on and on--will always be enough to put a hit on our campaign.

There is no short term gift from God for the Democrats. We have to make it happen. And, my God Joe Biden, you can't do it with these Fox-News-saturated, terror-alert-frightened voters. We have to be fighting Democrats (and that means you Senators have to stand with Dean--help him clarify if you disagree with his wording, do not turn on him). A president will always have some control over media events and this Republican Party will always use that advantage. It is stupid, then, to rely on hyper-media-swayed voters. And it is downright demented to think that attacking Democrats and creating a media storm against the Chairman of our own party will help to win them over.

I mean, come on, people:

Corked Bats

Come and Take It (Texas)